Analysis
Evacuation plans are crucial for residents living in the vicinity of Mount Fuji. In the event of a significant volcanic eruption, anyone residing in the zone stretching from Mount Fuji to Sagamihara in Kanagawa Prefecture should leave immediately.
An expert panel affiliated with Japan’s Cabinet Office has identified this area as the most at risk. They forecast a minimum of 30 centimeters of ash accumulation during a major eruption.
The panel has classified different levels of danger based on potential ash fallout:
| Stage | Ash Accumulation | Recommended Action |
|---|---|---|
| Stage 4 | >30 cm | Evacuate to safer locations |
| Stage 3 | 3 cm to 30 cm | Prepare to stay indoors; stock supplies |
| Stage 2 | 1 cm to 3 cm | Remain vigilant; monitor updates |
| Stage 1 | <1 cm | Normal conditions; no immediate action needed |
For most areas outside of the most dangerous zones, residents would be advised to remain indoors.
Conditions will likely lead to significant disruptions in electricity, transportation, and communication systems.
The history of Mount Fuji includes approximately 180 confirmed eruptions over the past 5,600 years. The last significant eruption that impacted Tokyo was recorded in 1707.
The Central Disaster Management Council assessed the potential impacts of a future eruption similar to that historical event in 2020. Their projections indicate that eleven prefectures could be blanketed with ash.
For example, Shinjuku Ward in Tokyo may face 3 centimeters of ash, while the area stretching to Sagamihara could see up to 30 centimeters.
For residents in the most affected areas (stage 4), it is essential to evacuate.
Those in stage 3 areas will likely experience ash conditions that could accumulate between 3 and 30 centimeters. This accumulation can hinder transportation and impede the delivery of critical supplies.
Hence, I must prepare by storing adequate provisions like food, water, and sanitary items capable of sustaining me for at least one week.
Yosuke Miyagi, a researcher specializing in volcanic disasters, emphasizes the dangers linked to volcanic ash. The ash’s fine and lightweight characteristics allow it to travel long distances, often exacerbated by the wind.
It is particularly hazardous because it contains sharp glass-like particles, which may damage vehicle windshields if cleaned incorrectly.
Furthermore, if the ash reaches the eyes, it can cause severe corneal damage.
Inhaling volcanic ash poses additional health risks, especially for individuals with pre-existing respiratory conditions.
If the ash comes into contact with moisture, it can become sticky, making even a modest accumulation, such as 10 centimeters, sufficient to immobilize a four-wheel drive vehicle.
Rail systems face significant vulnerabilities, as even a thin layer of ash may halt train operations entirely.
For instance, East Japan Railway Co. has 44 vehicles equipped with brushes designed to clear tracks. Nevertheless, there is uncertainty about the efficacy of this equipment following a volcanic eruption.
Power generation also stands to be affected. Ash may clog filters at thermal power plants, leading to potential electrical outages.
In scenarios where ash combines with moisture, it might accumulate on power lines and poles, exacerbating the likelihood of blackouts.
Cleanup efforts for volcanic ash are daunting. A substantial eruption of Mount Fuji may produce around 490 million cubic meters of ash, roughly ten times the debris resulting from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami.
Current guidelines focus on the urgent removal of about 31 million cubic meters of ash from major thoroughfares and railway lines.
Moreover, local authorities are responsible for appropriately storing the removed ash; however, the Tokyo, Kanagawa, and Yamanashi prefectural governments currently possess only about half of the necessary public space to accommodate the ash.
An official from the Tokyo metropolitan government has suggested that if all ash removal must occur within Tokyo’s limits, the clean-up process could extend over several decades.
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